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The agency’s annual coal market report listed higher consumption for power generation as the primary reason propelling demand for the dry fuel. It said post-pandemic revival in electricity demand, low hydel output and EU switching to coal-fired power amid gas crunch shifted the burden on coal.
“Global coal-fired power generation is set to rise to a new record of around 10.3 terawatt hours this year, while coal production is forecast to rise by 5.4% to around 8.3 billion tonnes, also an all-time high,” the report said.
Forecasting a 4% growth in India’s power demand, the report expects the country’s coal demand to increase by 70 million tonnes (MT). In comparison, China’s power demand growth is pegged at 7% and coal consumption growth at 18 MT.
Recent industry reports had put the all-India electricity demand growth at 10.6% on a year-on-year basis in the 8 months between April and November period of the current fiscal (April 1, 2022-March 31, 2023). Most of this demand was met by coal-fired power plants, pushing their run rate to over 58% but stretching the coal transport infrastructure.
The IEA report said coal demand in India, the second-largest consumer, increased by 14%, or 128 MT, in 2021. But other countries also reported significant increases in coal consumption, including the United States that saw a 15% increase at 66 MT, Germany 19% at 26 MT and Poland 12% at 13 MT.
Only a few countries recorded declines last year, with South Africa posting the largest fall at 5% or 9 MT.
The agency saw the current level of coal consumption lasting till 2025 as continued strong demand in emerging economies in Asia offsets reductions in mature markets.
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